As has been well-researched in various behavioral sciences and is repeatedly observed in real life, in complex situations selecting the correct action or decision is difficult and impacted by many factors. Surprises might occur as well as risks, both seen and unseen, including black or gray swans.
These deficiencies can cause dangerous problems. Surprise is a perennial problem in intelligence analysis, as well as in any complex prediction. Similarly is the problem of missing pertinent risks or opportunities.
In another field, consider estimating the value of an option or possible choice, such as financial value, sales potential, quality, level of response by opposing interests, and so on. Such valuations are fraught with risks, not to mention differing opinions that must be perceptively sorted out and resolved.
In almost any decision or analysis, creativity and insight is critical to success, and means to promote that and a sophisticated understanding of the situation are often assisted by special techniques.
A variety of decision support tools have been developed to help users make better decisions in risky and uncertain situations, including: optimization programs, statistical analyses, simulations, and an array of data mining and artificial analysis techniques. The current inventor's co-pending parent application U.S. patent application Ser. No. 11/651,827, filed Jan. 10, 2007 entitled “System and Method for Making Decisions” is another example of such a decision support tool.